{"id":84486,"date":"2025-07-08T07:50:32","date_gmt":"2025-07-08T07:50:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/zergerler.az\/?p=84486"},"modified":"2025-07-08T07:51:13","modified_gmt":"2025-07-08T07:51:13","slug":"2030-cu-il%c9%99-q%c9%99d%c9%99r-qizil-bazarini-n%c9%99-gozl%c9%99yir","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/zergerler.az\/?p=84486","title":{"rendered":"2030-cu il\u0259 q\u0259d\u0259r q\u0131z\u0131l bazar\u0131n\u0131 n\u0259 g\u00f6zl\u0259yir"},"content":{"rendered":"

Q\u0131z\u0131l\u0131n qiym\u0259ti t\u0259xmin\u0259n ard\u0131c\u0131l \u00fc\u00e7 ildir (2022-ci ilin oktyabr ay\u0131ndan) davaml\u0131 olaraq artmaqdad\u0131r. T\u0259kc\u0259 2025-ci ilin \u0259vv\u0259lind\u0259n b\u0259ri sar\u0131 metal\u0131n qiym\u0259ti 30% art\u0131b. S\u0259b\u0259bl\u0259r: geosiyasi qeyri-sabitlik, ticar\u0259t m\u00fcnaqi\u015f\u0259l\u0259ri, z\u0259ifl\u0259y\u0259n dollar (DXY), m\u0259rk\u0259zi banklar v\u0259 investorlar t\u0259r\u0259find\u0259n rekord t\u0259l\u0259bdir.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0Q\u0131z\u0131l\u0131n qiym\u0259tin\u0259 t\u0259sir ed\u0259n \u0259sas amill\u0259r a\u015fa\u011f\u0131dak\u0131lard\u0131r:<\/strong><\/p>\n

– inflyasiya v\u0259 deflyasiya;<\/p>\n

– b\u00f6hranlar v\u0259 m\u00fcnaqi\u015f\u0259l\u0259r;<\/p>\n

– m\u0259rk\u0259zi banklar\u0131n q\u0131z\u0131l al\u0131\u015flar\u0131 v\u0259 siyas\u0259tl\u0259ri;<\/p>\n

– Dollar\u0131n m\u0259z\u0259nn\u0259si.<\/p>\n

Marja.az-\u0131n xarici m\u0259tbuata istinad\u0259n m\u0259lumat\u0131na g\u00f6r\u0259, 2030-cu il\u0259 q\u0259d\u0259r q\u0131z\u0131l\u0131n qiym\u0259ti il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7 \u0259sas ssenari m\u00f6vcuddur.<\/p>\n

1. Baza<\/strong>: 5000 dollar\/ unsiya (ild\u0259 +8%) \u2014 qlobal eskalasiya, m\u00fclayim inflyasiya, stabil q\u0131z\u0131l al\u0131\u015f\u0131 olmadan geosiyasi g\u0259rginlik.<\/p>\n

2. Optimist:\u00a0<\/strong>\u00a07000 dollar \/ unsiya (ild\u0259 +15%) \u2014 hiperinflyasiya, borc b\u00f6hran\u0131, q\u0131z\u0131la t\u0259l\u0259bat\u0131n artmas\u0131.<\/p>\n

3.\u00a0 Pessimist:<\/strong>\u00a02500-2600 dollar \/ unsiya \u2014 monetar siyas\u0259tin s\u0259rtl\u0259\u015fdirilm\u0259si, t\u0259l\u0259bin azalmas\u0131, deflyasiya.<\/p>\n

Baza ssenari\u00a0<\/strong>q\u0131z\u0131l\u0131n orta illik qiym\u0259tinin 2030-cu il\u0259 q\u0259d\u0259r bir troy unsiyas\u0131 \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn 5000 dollardan \u00e7ox olaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 n\u0259z\u0259rd\u0259 tutur ki, bu da orta illik t\u0259xmin\u0259n 8% art\u0131ma b\u0259rab\u0259rdir. Bu proqnoz qlobal eskalasiyaya ke\u00e7id olmadan geosiyasi g\u0259rginliyin davam etm\u0259si, d\u00fcnyada m\u00fclayim inflyasiya (2\u20134%) v\u0259 m\u0259rk\u0259zi banklar t\u0259r\u0259find\u0259n q\u0131z\u0131l al\u0131\u015flar\u0131n\u0131n sabit h\u0259cml\u0259ri (ild\u0259 t\u0259xmin\u0259n 800\u2013900 ton), h\u0259m\u00e7inin \u0259sas valyuta bazarlar\u0131nda k\u0259skin dal\u011falanmalar olmadan AB\u015e dollar\u0131n\u0131n daha da z\u0259ifl\u0259m\u0259si hipotezin\u0259 \u0259saslan\u0131r.<\/p>\n

Optimist ssenari<\/strong>\u00a0AB\u015e v\u0259 Avropa \u0130ttifaq\u0131 \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259rind\u0259 borc b\u00f6hran\u0131 n\u0259tic\u0259sind\u0259 orta hesabla ild\u0259 10%-d\u0259n \u00e7ox qiym\u0259t art\u0131m\u0131 il\u0259 geosiyasi v\u0259 sanksiya qar\u015f\u0131durmalar\u0131n\u0131n g\u00fccl\u0259nm\u0259si v\u0259 qlobal hiperinflyasiya, beyn\u0259lxalq ehtiyatlarda v\u0259 hesabla\u015fmalarda dollar\u0131n pay\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131, m\u0259rk\u0259zi banklar t\u0259r\u0259find\u0259n q\u0131z\u0131l al\u0131\u015f\u0131n\u0131n ild\u0259 1 min tondan art\u0131q k\u0259skin artmas\u0131 il\u0259 m\u00fcmk\u00fcnd\u00fcr. Bu ssenarid\u0259 q\u0131z\u0131l\u0131n qiym\u0259ti 2030-cu il\u0259 q\u0259d\u0259r bir unsiya \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn 7 min dollara q\u0259d\u0259r y\u00fcks\u0259l\u0259 bil\u0259r ki, bu da orta illik t\u0259xmin\u0259n 15% art\u0131ma uy\u011fundur.<\/p>\n

Pessimist ssenari<\/strong>\u00a0pul siyas\u0259tinin s\u0259rtl\u0259\u015fdirilm\u0259si (real faiz d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259si 3%-d\u0259n yuxar\u0131), m\u0259rk\u0259zi banklardan t\u0259l\u0259bin azalmas\u0131 v\u0259 birja fondlar\u0131n\u0131n (ETF) sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 kimi amill\u0259rin h\u00f6kmranl\u0131\u011f\u0131 alt\u0131nda, el\u0259c\u0259 d\u0259 qlobal t\u0259n\u0259zz\u00fcl, deflyasiya meyll\u0259ri v\u0259 ya s\u0259nayed\u0259 q\u0131z\u0131l\u0131n texnoloji \u0259v\u0259zl\u0259nm\u0259si\u00a0\u00a0zaman\u0131 realla\u015fa bil\u0259r. Bel\u0259 bir v\u0259ziyy\u0259td\u0259 q\u0131z\u0131l\u0131n qiym\u0259ti 2030-cu il\u0259 q\u0259d\u0259r unsiya \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn 2500 – 2600 dollara qay\u0131da bil\u0259r.<\/p>\n

Uzunm\u00fcdd\u0259tli investorlar \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn q\u0131z\u0131l x\u00fcsusil\u0259 artan geosiyasi v\u0259 borc riskl\u0259ri fonunda strateji t\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259siz s\u0131\u011f\u0131nacaq aktivi rolunu qoruyub<\/p>\n

Haz\u0131rda qlobal bazarlarda 1 unsiya q\u0131z\u0131l 3335 dollara ticar\u0259t olunur.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

2030-cu il\u0259 q\u0259d\u0259r q\u0131z\u0131l\u0131n qiym\u0259ti il\u0259 ba\u011fl\u0131 ssenaril\u0259r<\/strong><\/p>\n

Q\u0131z\u0131l\u0131n qiym\u0259tinin d\u0259yi\u015fm\u0259sini \u015f\u0259rtl\u0259ndir\u0259n amill\u0259r\u0259 a\u015fa\u011f\u0131dak\u0131lar daxildir:<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u0130nflyasiya v\u0259 deflyasiya prosesl\u0259ri<\/strong>. Y\u00fcks\u0259k inflyasiya d\u00f6vrl\u0259rind\u0259 (m\u0259s\u0259l\u0259n, 1970-ci v\u0259 2020-ci ill\u0259rd\u0259) q\u0131z\u0131l \u0259h\u0259miyy\u0259tli d\u0259r\u0259c\u0259d\u0259 bahala\u015f\u0131r, deflyasiya \u015f\u0259raitind\u0259 is\u0259 (1980-ci ill\u0259rd\u0259) onun qiym\u0259ti ad\u0259t\u0259n azal\u0131r;<\/p>\n

\u0130qtisadi v\u0259 geosiyasi b\u00f6hranlar.\u00a0<\/strong>H\u0259rbi m\u00fcnaqi\u015f\u0259l\u0259r, bank b\u00f6hranlar\u0131 v\u0259 pandemiyalar t\u0259hl\u00fck\u0259siz s\u0131\u011f\u0131nacaq aktivi kimi q\u0131z\u0131la t\u0259l\u0259bat\u0131n artmas\u0131na k\u00f6m\u0259k edir ki, bu da onun qiym\u0259tinin y\u00fcks\u0259lm\u0259sin\u0259 s\u0259b\u0259b olur;<\/p>\n

M\u0259rk\u0259zi banklar\u0131n siyas\u0259ti.\u00a0<\/strong>Q\u0131z\u0131l\u0131n iri miqyasl\u0131 sat\u0131\u015f\u0131 (1999\u20132002) v\u0259 ya \u0259ksin\u0259, bir s\u0131ra \u00f6lk\u0259l\u0259rin monetar t\u0259nziml\u0259yicil\u0259ri t\u0259r\u0259find\u0259n onun aktiv al\u0131\u015f\u0131 (2010-cu ild\u0259n) bir anda q\u0131z\u0131l bazar\u0131nda t\u0259l\u0259b v\u0259 t\u0259klif balans\u0131na \u0259h\u0259miyy\u0259tli t\u0259sir g\u00f6st\u0259rir;<\/p>\n

AB\u015e dollar\u0131n\u0131n m\u0259z\u0259nn\u0259sinin dinamikas\u0131.<\/strong>\u00a0Q\u0131z\u0131l\u0131n qiym\u0259ti il\u0259 dollar indeksi (DXY) aras\u0131nda t\u0259rs korrelyasiya m\u00f6vcuddur: Amerika milli valyutas\u0131n\u0131n m\u00f6hk\u0259ml\u0259nm\u0259si q\u0131z\u0131l\u0131n qiym\u0259tinin d\u00fc\u015fm\u0259sin\u0259 g\u0259tirib \u00e7\u0131xar\u0131r v\u0259 \u0259ksin\u0259 (m\u0259s\u0259l\u0259n, 2011-2015-ci ill\u0259rd\u0259).<\/p>\n

Q\u0131z\u0131l qiym\u0259tl\u0259rind\u0259 art\u0131m tendensiyas\u0131 tarix\u0259n m\u00fc\u015fahid\u0259 edilmi\u015fdir:<\/p>\n

1971-1980-ci ill\u0259rd\u0259.<\/strong>\u00a0H\u0259min d\u00f6vrd\u0259 q\u0131z\u0131l standart\u0131n\u0131n l\u0259\u011fvi v\u0259 y\u00fcks\u0259k inflyasiya qiym\u0259tin bir unsiya \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn 35 dollardan 850 dollara (t\u0259xmin\u0259n +2300%) artmas\u0131na s\u0259b\u0259b olmu\u015fdur. \u018fsas s\u0259b\u0259bl\u0259r AB\u015e-\u0131n dollar\u0131 q\u0131z\u0131lla ba\u011flamaqdan imtina etm\u0259si, neft b\u00f6hranlar\u0131 v\u0259 hiperinflyasiya idi;<\/p>\n

2001-2011-ci ill\u0259rd\u0259.\u00a0<\/strong>Dot-com v\u0259 qlobal maliyy\u0259 b\u00f6hranlar\u0131, el\u0259c\u0259 d\u0259 k\u0259miyy\u0259t yum\u015falmas\u0131 siyas\u0259ti qiym\u0259tin bir unsiya \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn 250 dollardan 1920 dollara (+668%) artmas\u0131na s\u0259b\u0259b olmu\u015fdur;<\/p>\n

2019-2024-c\u00fc ill\u0259rd\u0259.<\/strong>\u00a0COVID-19 pandemiyas\u0131, geosiyasi g\u0259rginlik v\u0259 m\u0259rk\u0259zi bank\u0131n rekord q\u0131z\u0131l al\u0131\u015flar\u0131 qiym\u0259ti bir unsiya \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn 1200 dollardan 2450 dollara (+104%) y\u00fcks\u0259ltmi\u015fdir.<\/p>\n

Cari uzunm\u00fcdd\u0259tli art\u0131m d\u00f6vr\u00fc bir s\u0131ra amill\u0259rin birl\u0259\u015fm\u0259si il\u0259 \u015f\u0259rtl\u0259nir: artan ticar\u0259t g\u0259rginliyi v\u0259 geosiyasi qeyri-sabitlik (x\u00fcsusil\u0259 Ukrayna v\u0259 Yax\u0131n \u015e\u0259rqd\u0259 g\u0259rginlik), z\u0259ifl\u0259y\u0259n AB\u015e dollar\u0131 indeksi (DXY), rekord m\u0259rk\u0259zi bank al\u0131\u015flar\u0131,ETF-l\u0259rd\u0259n, p\u0259rak\u0259nd\u0259 investorlardan v\u0259 elektronika s\u0259nayesind\u0259n q\u0131z\u0131la artan t\u0259l\u0259b.<\/p>\n

Q\u0131z\u0131l\u0131n qiym\u0259tinin a\u015fa\u011f\u0131 d\u00fc\u015fm\u0259si a\u015fa\u011f\u0131dak\u0131 tarixi d\u00f6vrl\u0259rd\u0259 m\u00fc\u015fahid\u0259 edilmi\u015fdir:<\/strong><\/p>\n

1980-2000-ci ill\u0259rd\u0259.<\/strong>\u00a0Federal Ehtiyat Sisteminin (FED, AB\u015e M\u0259rk\u0259zi Bank\u0131) s\u0259rt pul siyas\u0259ti, dollar\u0131n m\u00f6hk\u0259ml\u0259nm\u0259si v\u0259 birjan\u0131n b\u00f6y\u00fcm\u0259si qiym\u0259tin unsiya \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn 850 dollardan 250 dollara (\u201370%) azalmas\u0131na s\u0259b\u0259b olmu\u015fdu;<\/p>\n

2011-2015-ci ill\u0259rd\u0259.<\/strong>\u00a0AB\u015e iqtisadiyyat\u0131n\u0131n b\u0259rpas\u0131, dollar\u0131n m\u00f6hk\u0259ml\u0259nm\u0259si v\u0259 ETF-l\u0259rd\u0259n q\u0131z\u0131la t\u0259l\u0259bin azalmas\u0131 qiym\u0259tin unsiya \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn 1920 dollardan 1050 dollara (\u201345%) d\u00fc\u015fm\u0259sin\u0259 s\u0259b\u0259b olmu\u015fdu;<\/p>\n

2022-ci ild\u0259 (d\u00fcz\u0259li\u015f).<\/strong>\u00a0Fed-in aqressiv faiz art\u0131m\u0131 v\u0259 x\u0259zin\u0259 istiqrazlar\u0131n\u0131n artan c\u0259lbediciliyi qiym\u0259tl\u0259rin unsiya \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcn 2070 dollardan 1620 dollara (on ayda -22%) azalmas\u0131na s\u0259b\u0259b olmu\u015fdu.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

marja.az<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Every selector has the potential to have unintended side effects by targeting unwanted elements or clashing with other selectors. More surprisingly, our selectors may even lose out in the global specificity war, ultimately having little or no effect on the page at all. Any time we make a change to a CSS file, we need to carefully consider the global environment in which our styles will sit. No other front end technology requires so much discipline just to keep the code at a minimum level of maintainability.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":84361,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[114],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-84486","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-iqtisadiyyat"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/zergerler.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/84486","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/zergerler.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/zergerler.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zergerler.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zergerler.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=84486"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/zergerler.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/84486\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":84488,"href":"https:\/\/zergerler.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/84486\/revisions\/84488"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zergerler.az\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/84361"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/zergerler.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=84486"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zergerler.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=84486"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zergerler.az\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=84486"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}